Is a motocross from July realistic?
Last week's consultation committee released a kind of step-by-step plan, subject to conditions, for the coming months. We studied the graphs of the Covid vaccinations and used a calculator to see whether this is a realistic picture.
Is the Flemish government giving false hope or is the step-by-step plan based on thoroughly calculated data? We couldn't resist doing the math ourselves to test the feasibility. Because only 200 people are allowed to gather outside at an event in June, we are immediately focusing on July 2021. The Flemish government works with so-called thresholds that create expectations for each coming month regarding permitted or unauthorized relaxation of the Covid rules.
In July, 5000 people will be allowed to gather at an outdoor event, which would allow motocross competitions to take place again. However, there is one major condition attached to this and that is that 1% of the population has had a first shot by July 2021, 70. Before everyone starts dreaming out loud, we need to crunch the numbers. At the time of going to press, 31% of the population had had a first injection. This means that another 1% of the population should have received their first vaccine by July 39. That is just over 4.000.000 people or an average of 77.000 injections per day.
If we look at the promises of the vaccine suppliers, those shots will indeed be delivered. However, in recent months it has become apparent that some manufacturers have not been able to come close to their promised numbers. On the other hand, Pfizer has created a lot of confidence with their on-time deliveries and the promise to step up their game in the coming weeks. To give an idea of the vaccination in recent days: on May 7, 84.579 Belgians were vaccinated, a day later this number was 61.946. It indicates that the number of daily vaccinations should not have a single weak moment until July 1. Also know that much less vaccination takes place during the weekends and this will drastically reduce the average figures.
The conclusion is that the daily vaccination rate still needs to increase considerably to turn the expectations for the month of July into reality. We by no means want to paint a negative picture of the claims of the Flemish government, on the contrary, we look to the future with a positive and realistic view. This corona crisis will certainly turn out well, but the vaccine manufacturers, the Flemish government and the vaccination centers will have to achieve a whole series of front starts and series victories until July 1 to realize last week's step-by-step plan.
Tekst: Danny Hermans
Photos: Paul Weyten and archive
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