Bavo Swijgers dissects: MXGP top 10 XXL

IIn 2010, the age limit for MX2 was raised to 23. Sixteen years later, MXGP has become the absolute premier class in motocross worldwide. "And everyone wants to get in the top 10," says occasional analyst and MXGP photographer Bavo Swijgers.

After our 5 absolute top riders from part 1 and the five sub-top riders from part 2, we are still left with a large group of riders.

Some are starting the World Championship with more momentum than others, but all have already proven their worth. Of the group of 12 below, only two drivers have never stood on a GP podium.

I want every rider to excel, but this season, too, there are some very strong riders in MXGP who won't get much of a chance in this field. At least on paper. A few injuries and the whole pecking order is being rearranged again.

Andrea Adamo, Red Bull KTM (intro photo)
bavo Silent: One thing's for sure: Adamo isn't afraid! We've already seen that in MX2. He's going to give it his all from the start and wants to prove himself. I doubt he'll make many friends that way—but he doesn't really care! Whether that's the right formula to reach the end of the season, I don't know. But I do think that Andrea, even with a few hard lessons along the way, will be unstoppable. With five-time world champion Joël Smets at his side, Adamo has someone in his camp who knows the ropes, including in MXGP. That experience is definitely an asset for Adamo.

Pauls Jonass, Kawasaki Racing Team
Silent: I think Pauls has had a really good winter. He's someone who's almost always there—the perfect co-pilot. His job is to always be there, and if all goes well, to get into that top 5. It won't be easy: a young generation has emerged—an Adamo, a De Wolf, a Coenen—who haven't yet been too keen on MXGP and might therefore dare to push harder. But Jonass knows the formula, and a world champion doesn't forget that. Just think of his GP victory in Portugal in 2024.

Andrea Bonaccorsi, Ducati Factory Racing
Silent: Bonaccorsi still has a lot of room for improvement. He's very positive, works hard, and I think he'll make progress this year. The technical side of things at Ducati remains a question mark—if they've been able to make improvements, I see no reason why he can't excel. And let's be honest: an Italian on an Italian brand will give the engineers in Borgo Panicale extra motivation! Bona is still too young to stop developing his speed and technique. But I don't expect him to be at the top from the first GP.

Jeremy Seewer, Ducati Factory Racing
Silent: With Seewer, we know it's possible if he feels good. We already saw those flashes last year. In his first year with Ducati, he was on the podium twice, but there were also far too many races where things went haywire. So far, the consistency that once characterized Seewer has been hard to find. Jeremy belongs in a group of names that have the potential to pull off an occasional surprise—but everything has to be right.

Brent Van Doninck & Alberto Forato, Fantic Factory Racing MXGP
Silent: Van Doninck and Forato have a lot to prove. Their first task is to complete another full season. I can see them starting strong, but we have to be realistic. A top-10 finish in MXGP is far from a given at the moment. That's the primary goal for most of the riders we're discussing here. And if a surprise top-5 finish comes along, all the better, of course. Both Brent and Alby are capable of that, by the way.

Jago Geerts, Beta Factory Racing
Silent: Jago is very happy at the moment, and that's already helping enormously. Things were quite dark mentally for him towards the end of last season—he'd lost some of his enjoyment of riding. Now he's coming back with a lot of enthusiasm, and that's the first step. He has more than enough talent. But for me, the big question is: can Beta be a contender right from the start with the factory KTM, Honda, or Yamaha bike? If you're not in the right position from the start, it'll be difficult to finish in the top 10. I hope for Jago that the equipment is right from the start—because if the enjoyment and confidence return, the rest can quickly follow.

Mattia Guadagnini, Van Venrooy Racing KTM
Silent: Mattia is actually returning to something familiar—the KTM he knows. Although that was more in GasGas and Husqvarna guise. Like Seewer, he certainly showed some good things last year, but the consistency was lacking. The team changes also didn't do Guadagnini any good. But now, within Van Venrooy's structure, he's in a very pleasant, no-nonsense environment, and that's incredibly important for Mattia. That can be incredibly positive for him. They always say: a happy rider is a fast rider. Mattia is fast—technically, he's an excellent rider. If he's happy and stays injury-free, he's definitely someone who belongs in the top ten. The competition is just fierce—the top five and top ten positions are occupied by guys who truly belong there!

Rick Elzinga, Beta Factory Racing
Silent: As great and pleasant as I find Rick as a person, you have to be honest: if you have another injury in the winter, you start with a huge disadvantage. By the time you reach the speed the other guys will have in Argentina, they'll be five or six GPs down the line—and they'll have gotten faster again. So it'll be a chase. I hope he can start as many races as possible and learn a lot from it. Rick has the body to race the 450, that's for sure. But I think you have to be realistic: a top-10 finish on a regular basis is still too much for him this season.

Jan Pancar, JP253 KTM Racing & Isak Gifting, JK Racing Yamaha
Silent: Two very different types, and last year they each delivered impressive performances. Gifting drove Uddevalla crazy in 2025 when he fought for the series victory. Pancar had his exploits in Loket and during the MX of Nations. Those kinds of performances from a privateer driver have become quite exceptional. Jan (Pancar) is a calm diesel: healthy, consistent, and occasionally a flash when everything is right. Isak (Gifting) is a heavily tuned motorcyclist—he can go incredibly fast, but unfortunately, sometimes also crash incredibly hard. If you could cross those two, you'd have a world champion! But you don't change a driver overnight. I expect perhaps a little more from the former than last year if he comes out of the winter with confidence. We know Gifting can surprise—but keeping his composure remains the challenge.

Kevin Horgmo, Motoblouz Honda Motul SR
Silent: "With Kevin Horgmo, it's a waiting game. He missed a significant portion of last season, so he might start here with a little less race rhythm and confidence than a year ago. Last year, he was one of the guys who made a big step forward—not as big as Lucas, but he certainly showed some good things. A 5th and a 5th place in the final standings of an MXGP race isn't for everyone. So Horgmo definitely has the speed. The question is: how much confidence and race rhythm will he bring to the starting line?"

Oriol Oliver, SS24 Gabriel KTM
Silent: Probably the least well-known of the riders we're discussing. If you've made such a splash in your first races on a 450, it definitely means you're made of the right stuff. He even made it to the podium in Alghero (ed. Assoluti d'Italia) this spring. Oriol also came close to a podium finish several times in the MX2 World Championship. To be honest, I don't know how good he is on all the different surfaces. I don't think he'll just come in and ride with the veterans. But never say never—there are surprises every season!

Tekst: Tom Jacobs | Photos: Fullspectrum Media/Bavo Swijgers, JP Acevedo, CDS images, Davide Messora/Red Bull contentpool, MXGP